On September 23, 2026, the Southeast Asian precious metals market saw a key trading day. Gold prices surged strongly on the eve of the Fed's September FOMC meeting, with London spot gold breaking through $4360/oz, up 1.2% from the previous trading day; silver prices rose in tandem, with London spot silver at $26.8/oz, a 1.5% increase. Behind this trend is the strengthening of Fed rate cut expectations and the escalation of geopolitical risks, both of which boosted market risk-off sentiment and injected upward momentum into precious metals prices.
One、Market Overview: Gold Breaks $4360, Silver Rises in Tandem
According to real-time data from VNGOLD, gold prices in major Southeast Asian cities on September 23 were as follows: Bangkok gold shops' 24K gold retail price was 18,500 Thai Baht/gram, up 150 Baht from the previous day; Kuala Lumpur's 24K gold retail price was 230 Malaysian Ringgit/gram, a 1.1% increase; Singapore's 24K gold retail price was 190 Singapore Dollars/gram, up 1.3%. For silver, Bangkok's silver jewelry retail price was 1,200 Thai Baht/gram, Kuala Lumpur's was 150 Malaysian Ringgit/gram, and Singapore's was 120 Singapore Dollars/gram, all up 0.8%-1.2% from the previous day.
From the international market perspective, London spot gold opened higher with a gap after the Asian morning session, then continued to rise under the stimulus of Fed officials' speeches. As of 16:00 Beijing time, London spot gold was at $4362/oz, with an intraday high of $4370/oz and a low of $4345/oz; London spot silver was at $26.82/oz, with an intraday high of $27.0/oz and a low of $26.6/oz. The COMEX gold futures main contract was at $4358/oz, up 1.1%; the silver futures main contract was at $26.78/oz, up 1.4%.
Two、Core Driving Factors: Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Rising Geopolitical Tensions
1. Strengthening Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Clear Signals of Monetary Policy Shift
The Fed's September FOMC meeting is approaching, and market expectations for a rate cut are heating up. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September has risen to 85%, with a 15% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. This expectation mainly stems from recent weak US economic data: the August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8, below the market expectation of 49.0, remaining in the contraction zone for the third consecutive month; non-farm payrolls increased by 157,000 in August, far below the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell hinted in his September 17 speech that if economic data remains weak, the Fed will consider further monetary policy adjustments, further strengthening market expectations for a rate cut.
For the precious metals market, rate cut expectations mean a decline in real interest rates. Real interest rates are the opportunity cost of holding gold; when real interest rates fall, gold's appeal rises. Therefore, the strengthening of Fed rate cut expectations has become one of the core factors driving gold price increases. At the same time, rate cut expectations also reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar, with the dollar index falling 0.3% to 102.5 on September 23, providing support for gold prices.
2. Geopolitical Risks Escalate, Risk-Off Demand Drives Precious Metals Higher
Recently, Middle East tensions have intensified again, with the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran triggering market concerns. On September 22, Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, followed by retaliatory strikes from Israel, further worsening the regional situation. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, and European energy prices have risen again, further exacerbating market risk-off sentiment.
Geopolitical risks are a traditional risk-off driver for the precious metals market. When regional tensions rise, investors tend to shift funds to safe-haven assets like gold to avoid risks. Therefore, the escalation of Middle East tensions has become another important factor driving precious metals price increases. According to a VNGOLD survey, Southeast Asian investors' demand for gold rose by 20% on September 23 compared to the previous week, with demand growth being most pronounced in Thailand and Malaysia.
3. Central Banks Continue to Buy Gold, Supporting Long-Term Gold Value
Global central banks are still increasing their gold reserves. According to the latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC), global central banks' net gold purchases reached 320 tons in the first half of 2026, a historic high. Among them, ASEAN central banks have been particularly active: the Bank of Thailand increased its gold holdings by 20 tons in the first half of 2026, the Bank of Malaysia by 15 tons, and the Bank of Indonesia by 10 tons. These central banks' gold purchases not only support gold's long-term value but also signal gold as a strategic asset to the market.
For the Southeast Asian market, ASEAN central banks' gold purchases have a demonstration effect on local investors. Many local investors believe that central banks' gold purchases indicate gold is undervalued, so they are increasing their gold allocations. According to the Bangkok Gold Association, gold sales at Bangkok gold shops rose by 15% on September 23 compared to the previous day, with physical gold bars and coins seeing the most significant sales growth.
Three、Market Reaction: Investor Sentiment and Trading Strategies
1. Retail Investors: Risk-Off Demand Dominates, Batch Buying Becomes Mainstream
Against the backdrop of rising precious metals prices, Southeast Asian retail investors are relatively optimistic. Many investors believe that Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks will continue to support precious metals prices, so they are choosing to buy in batches. For example, Mr. Li, an investor in Bangkok, said: "I started buying gold in batches last week, 10 grams each time, and now I hold 50 grams in total. I think gold prices still have room to rise, so I continue to buy."
However, some investors are cautious. Ms. Zhang, an investor in Kuala Lumpur, said: "Although gold prices are rising, I'm also worried about a market pullback. Therefore, I choose to set a stop-loss point at $4350/oz to control risks."
2. Institutional Investors: Speculation and Risk-Off Coexist, Volatility Rises
Institutional investors' trading in the precious metals market is more complex, involving both risk-off demand and speculative behavior. A trader from a hedge fund in Singapore revealed that the fund increased its long positions in gold futures on September 23 while selling some silver futures to hedge risks. He believes gold's risk-off demand is stronger, while silver's industrial demand may be affected by economic slowdown.
Additionally, volatility in the precious metals market is rising. According to the VIX index, the volatility of the precious metals market on September 23 increased by 10% from the previous week, indicating that market sentiment is relatively tense and trading risks have increased. Therefore, institutional investors are more inclined to use derivatives like options to hedge risks.
Four、Outlook: Precious Metals Prices Still Have Upside, but Key Data Needs Attention
1. Fed FOMC Meeting: Rate Cut Magnitude is Key
On September 25, the Fed will hold an FOMC meeting, and the market will closely watch the magnitude of the rate cut. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, gold prices may continue to rise to $4400/oz; if it cuts by 50 basis points, gold prices may break through $4500/oz. However, if the Fed indicates the rate cut is temporary, gold prices may pull back to $4300/oz.
2. Geopolitical Situation: Progress of Middle East Conflict
The progress of the Middle East situation will affect the risk-off demand in the precious metals market. If the conflict escalates, gold prices may rise further; if the situation eases, gold prices may pull back. Therefore, investors need to closely follow Middle East news and adjust their strategies in a timely manner.
3. Economic Data: US Economic Performance
The performance of US economic data will affect the Fed's monetary policy. If the August CPI data is below expectations, the probability of a Fed rate cut will rise, and gold prices may increase; if the CPI data is above expectations, the probability of a rate cut will decrease, and gold prices may pull back. Therefore, investors need to pay attention to the August CPI data released on September 26.
Five、Investment Advice: Diversify Allocation, Control Risks
For Southeast Asian investors, the current precious metals market still has investment value, but risks need to be controlled. It is recommended that investors adopt the following strategies:
- Diversify Allocation: Do not put all funds into the precious metals market; instead, treat precious metals as part of asset allocation, combining them with other assets (such as stocks, bonds) to reduce risks.
- Batch Buying: Do not buy a large amount of precious metals at once; instead, buy in batches to reduce costs. For example, buy 10-20 grams of gold each time and gradually increase positions based on price trends.
- Set Stop-Loss: When buying precious metals, set a stop-loss point to control risks. For example, set a stop-loss when gold prices fall by 5% to avoid expanding losses.
- Monitor Central Bank Actions: Central banks' gold purchases support gold's value; investors can follow the gold purchase dynamics of ASEAN central banks to adjust strategies in a timely manner.
Conclusion
On September 23, 2026, the Southeast Asian precious metals market showed a volatile upward trend under the dual impact of Fed rate cut expectations and rising geopolitical tensions. Gold prices broke through the $4360 mark, with silver prices rising in tandem, as market risk-off demand and speculative sentiment intertwined. Looking ahead, precious metals prices still have upside, but attention should be paid to changes in the Fed FOMC meeting, geopolitical situation, and economic data. Investors should adopt strategies such as diversifying allocation, batch buying, and setting stop-losses to control risks and seize investment opportunities.
